Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has updated his prediction regarding a Republican take over of the Senate. Back in March he rated GOP chances at 5.8. That's statistical talk for them gaining the 6 seats they need to take over a majority and put Senator Mitch McConnell in charge. Nate's June 8th prediction is 5.7. Still in the danger zone, so Nate leans strongly toward Republicans having control of both houses of Congress.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-toss-up-or-tilt-gop/
The good news is that according to Silver, there are 10 races where he gives each party a 20% change of winning. Obviously, nothing is set in stone and many things can happen on the way to November 4th.
Silver also reports an enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats with GOP slightly more enthusiastic than Dems.
Because he relies on data from polls, Silver points out that the quality of polling is problematic. He notes that polling firms that use industry standards in their data collection show slightly higher results for Democrats.
There are several races where Democratic candidate have improved chances over what they had in March. And likewise, there are several where he says Republican chances have improved.
I think the biggest point here is the old computer programmer acronym, GIGO. Garbage in, garbage out. The predictions anyone makes regarding the outcome of the Mid Term election November 4 are only as good as the polling data used to make those predictions.
So, let's not get discouraged Democrats. Let's rise to the challenge, gather our resources, and march on to victory this Fall. What do you think will happen if all the registered Democrats actually vote?
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